No crypto, no leverage, no meme stocks, no short-selling, no subscriptions
Baidu faces a significant challenge as its primary search business has lost its appeal to TenCent’s WeChat and with the Cloud division unable to compensate.
Profit 2024: 9$/Eps, exluding cash only 2 EPS. Investing massively in R&D, unsuccessful so far. Stock trading almost against the value of the cash on its balance sheet.
So cheap that I see massive upside. High risk high reward case.
Pinduoduo is a very unique company. It is the heavies weight in my porfolio and has massive upside.
PDD is a chinese social commerce app that allows users to buy products at very low prices by forming groups with friends and family for bulk purchases.
Founded in 2015, the platform integrates social media, gamification and a focus on fresh agriculture to provide an engaging and affordable shopping experience. It connects consumers directly with manufacturers and farmers, reducing costs and benefiting both parties in the supply chain.
Some unique points about the company: Consumer-Centric Approach: Zhao (CEO) indicates that consumer experience takes precedence over all other factors. The company refrains from tiering consumers, aiming for fairness and reasonableness.
Strategic Focus: PDD has a strong focus on e-commerce since 2015. With a discipline and consistency the company has a long-term focus. They are not concerned with short-term profit, AI, dividends, listing, and other distractions. Big competitor of Alibaba. PDD now has the same 400 million daily active users as Taobao. Alibaba should have destroyed or bought them when they could. Good to hold both Alibaba (for the AI upside) and PDD (e commerce focus).
Alibaba, criminally competitive and undervalued relative to their western counterparts.
Alibaba ADR traded at $300+ (300% higher than today) right before Xi squashed the Ant Financial IPO (BABA daughter company), which was set up to be (one of?) the largest IPO’s in history. Then the group was hit with major fines and it’s famous CEO Jack Ma disappeared form public theatre after criticizing Chinese policy (rooky move). Beijing cannot afford to make the same mistake twice. The massive scale and IP available in BABA related to the AI technology race are unmissable. Still only trading at roughly 10 times forward earnings (three times cheaper than US counterparts).
Considerations
Produces electric cars cheaper and faster than all competitors. Produces product similar to Tesla M3 for half the price. Still more profitable than other EV manufactures, about 20% margin even at their current prices. BYD’s 2024 profit is much higher than Tesla’s. The gap is going to widen in 2025.
Revolution in car making. Tesla will approximate zero I expect.
A 25-year-old tech company that strategically moves with the dao, methodically and effectively overtaking competitors in different segments. Out innovates the rest. P E 20 at the moment. Not cheap not expensive. Good stable addition to the portfolio, correlates strongly with the whole China strategy
You might have heard of them. Novo Nordisk is currently experiencing an unprecedented period of growth and global attention, almost entirely driven by the spectacular success of its GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs, Ozempic (for type 2 diabetes) and Wegovy (for weight management).
Nordisk stock is down due to its significantly reduced 2025 sales and profit outlook, citing weaker-than-expected demand for its key weight-loss drug Wegovy and diabetes drug Ozempic
It is currently very cheap. Investors are dumping it in panic. A lot of emotion is in the stock at the moment.
The company has 10 to 15 percen earnings growth, super profitable, and a PE of 12 ish.
Despite lower guidance earnings are increasing and the PE ratio is very low. Again: unpopularity is opportunity. In the long term value of companies are driven by earnings.
Some positive signs are starting to accumulate, but still very cheap. I bought at the bottom more or less. A great addition to your portfolio and very uncorrelated with mining and China.
Newmont is a gold mining company such as Hecla is a silver mining company. Just as Hecla, it is a prime candidate to benefit from the high inflation low growth (stagflation) scenario that is unfolding.
Lower energy costs AISC (see Hecla post) down to roughly 1500 an ounce so it is majorly profitable at these prices which are expected to hold on. Newmont has decided not to hedge prices for 2025.
They have the biggest reserves in the world over 200 million ounces. It is cheap at the moment (now already a bit more expensive) with 9 times forward PE.
The Newmont-to-gold ratio is currently at its lowest point in 44 years. Gold miners are very unpopular at the moment. Unpopularity is opportunity. This is one of the most interesting and straight forward opportunities of the moment. Free cash flow machine in stagflation scenario
Hecla mining is the largest silver mining company in North America. It is the second most weighted company in my porfolio. The company mines silver, gold, lead, and zinc from operations in Alaska, Idaho, and Canada.
Operational Profitability (The Important Metric for Miners)
This measures the cash cost of producing an ounce of silver versus the price it sells for. The key metric here is All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC) per ounce.
Hecla has a now a AISC of lower than 12 making 300% net profit on silver (18 million ounces) and 150% profit on gold. There are some accounting difficulties but I believe in the current macro environment this is a massive opportunity.
Silver is expected to continue to outperform, it is very cheap
Increasing industrial demand for silver